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Network Working Group Poorer Richard Request for Comments: 1216 Almanac Institute

                                                         Prof. Kynikos
                                                 Miskatonic University
                                                          1 April 1991

           Gigabit Network Economics and Paradigm Shifts

Status of this Memo

 This memo proposes a new standard paradigm for the Internet
 Activities Board (IAB) standardization track.  Distribution of this
 memo is unlimited.

1. Introduction

 The history of computer communication contains many examples of
 efforts to align the capabilities of processors to that of
 communication media.  Packet switching is the classic case of a
 careful tradeoff between the costs of memory, processing, and
 communications bandwidth.

 With all of the attention and publicity focused on gigabit networks,
 not much notice has been given to small and largely unfunded research
 efforts which are studying innovative approaches for dealing with
 technical issues within the constraints of economic science.  This
 memo defines one such paradigm.

2. Contemporary Network Economics

 Recent cost estimates predict a continuing decline in the cost for
 processing, memory, and communication.  One recent projection put the
 decline for $/bit and $/MIP at 99% per decade and put the decline for
 $/bps at 90% per decade.  Scalable parallel processor designs may
 accelerate the cost declines for CPU and memory, but no similar
 accelerated decline should be expected in the cost of communications.
 Such a decline would imply eventual declines in the cost of 56Kbps
 service used for voice, resulting in a negative rate of return for
 telecommunications carriers, an unlikely eventuality even if free-
 market forces are carried to their logical extreme.

 Increases in processing power create additional demand for
 communications bandwidth, but do nothing to pay for it.  While we
 will sell no paradigm before its time, the 9% difference,
 particularly after compounding is taken into account, will bankrupt
 the internet community unless a paradigm shift takes place.

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3. The ULS Paradigm Shift

 The ULS paradigm shift breaks the downward spiral by concentrating on
 end-to-end datagrams and virtual circuit services operating in the
 .01 uGbps region, namely Ultra Low Speed networking.

 However,

 "The worlds best technological paradigm shifts are useless unless
 they (a) are economically viable, (b) have clear applicability, (c)
 are technically feasible."

1. -Milton John in "Paradigms Lost"

3.1 Economic Viability

 Cost projections indicate that individual ULS circuits can be
 provided at a cost of <$.03/month due to the unusually high
 multiplexing that will be possible on Gbit links.  The 10 THz
 bandwidth of existing optical fibers will be able to support on the
 order of 1 TUser, handling population growth, and even internet
 growth, for some time.  Moreover, if $.03/month is a significant
 barrier to entry, substantial discounts appear to be economically
 feasible.

3.2 Clear Applicability

 A fundamental principle of networking is that network speed must
 match the application.  We have identified a number of critical
 applications that are matched to ULS technology.  Below we itemize a
 few of these, but we provide a brief description for only the first;
 the match for the others should be equally obvious.

1. Low priority facsimile: A large percentage of documents and letters

are sent via facsimile not because they need sub-minute delivery,

   but because they carry signatures or graphics.  In these cases, a
   three-hour delivery (comparable to the value reliably achieved on
   many of today's packet-based email systems) is sufficient.  With
   proper compression, this delivery time can be achieved over a
   ULSnet.

1. Real time data (e.g., tracking glaciers)

1. US postal service

1. Contracting for research

 To be truly viable, ULS networking must scale, and indeed it does.

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 With some effort, we envision extending the technology to the
 extremely-low-speed regime.  Applications that scale from the ULS
 applications above are:

1. Real time data (e.g., gravity wave detectors)
2. Italian postal service
3. Congressional budget process

3.3 Technical Feasibility

 The hardware issues are well in hand.  The remaining issues are
 protocol related.  To examine them, we must extrapolate backward from
 some well known networking principles.

 "Gigabit networks require new protocols."

 The clear inference here is that ULS will require old protocols, so
 as we recede into the future, we should expect the following:

 ULS will require minimal development.  Although we may need research
 in storage technology to recover the software from old media such as
 decayed magnetic dump tapes, paper tape, and partially recycled card
 decks, this effort will be more than offset by the savings.

 ULS protocols will be well documented, amenable to verification, and
 suitable for MSI implementation in Silicon, or even Germanium or
 relays.  In particular, the alternating bit protocol [1] is a leading
 contender.

 "Bad news travel fast."

 Therefore, ULS gives preferential treatment to good news.  While this
 will delay the delivery of bills, notices from timeshare
 condominiums, and contest announcements, it will also produce
 immediate productivity gains on several mailing lists.

3.4 Problems Requiring Work

 ULS is not without problems.

 Some other well-known protocol suites are well ahead of ULS in
 exploring the desired performance operating point.  We note our
 concern about the dearth of domestic (U.S.-based) research and
 development in this important area.  This is particularly disturbing
 in light of the level of work now underway in other countries.

 Efficiency is a problem:

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1. All ULS protocols incorporate slow-start.

1. Lower data rates mean fewer errors.

1. Whereas modern protocols use 32 bit sequence numbers,

acknowledgment fields, etc., ULS headers can be quite small (1 bit

   sequence numbers for the alternating-bit protocol).  Thus the
   header/data ratio shrinks.

 The net result is "creeping efficiency" which tends to push us away
 from the proper ULS operating point.  While we have no definitive
 solution, there are several promising palliatives:

1. Forward Error Insertion (FEI)

1. Negative window scaling factors

1. New protocol layers

1. Multiple presentation layers

4. Conclusions

 The road to Ultra Low Speed (ULS) technology is long, slow, and easy.

REFERENCES and BIBLIOGRAPHY

 [1] Lynch, W. "Reliable full-duplex file transmission over half-
     duplex telephone lines", CACM, pp. 407-410, June 1968.

Security Considerations

     Security issues are not discussed in this memo.

Authors' Addresses

     Dr. Poorer Richard
     Almanac Institute
     Center against Misoneoism
     Campo Imperatore, Italy
     EMail:  none

     Prof. Kynikos
     Miskatonic University
     Arkham, MA.
     Email: Kynikos@Cthulu.Miskatonic.EDU

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