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   In the next two years I see the collapse of organized 

societies worldwide, due mainly to the cutoff of Mideast oil, probably resulting in nuclear war. It's too late to develop alternative energies so a sizeable cutback in oil will cause a massive depression.

   Millions of taxpayers will be unemployed.  Over 30 million 

Social Security recipients and nearly that amount on Welfare will see their checks stopped. Millions who are now on Valium or other narcotic tranquilizers will go insane when they cannot get more. Medical supplies will command astronomical prices as drug addicts swarm over pharmacies looking for dope, ruining everything they don't steal.

   Cities will be cut off from food as oil supplies run out and 

the truckers cannot get fuel. As oil-based fertilizers become unavailable to grow food, agricultural production will drop to the point where famine will be a reality.

   No governmental system can long put off the inevitability of 

the above chaos and ruin of our already overburdened society. Our computer-run system has heretofore depended on a certain percentage of competent types to second guess our increasingly underachieving majority and the politicians catering to them for their votes. But the comptents are gradually giving up and dropping out, almost like in Ayn Rand's "Atlas Shrugged". Of course, they are less motivated by the logic of withdrawal than by the sheer hopelessness and frustration of the task of maintaining a Disneyland for dummies. The threatened cutoff of oil is only the last straw in a long sequence of factors leading to our ultimate decline and final collapse.

   The process of social disintegration began years ago in 

various stages. There is no one cause nor one year. A combination of giving in to human, social, political and economic weaknesses, accelerating year by year, has led up to the twilight of world civilization. The Liberal altruists seeking to make a place in the sun for the underachiever and the "disenfranchised" has enabled the unproductive to gain a majority in most societies. So, like Babylon, Greece, Egypt, Rome and so many other civilizations, our Disneyland, too, will shut down forever.

   So many world systems are breaking down at this time that it 

is projected by socio-economists more knowledgeable than I that the collapse will come in late 1981 or '82. It will begin like the 1929 Stock Market Crash and go on to the utter ruin and obliteration of nations.

   Many others predict another crash and depression.  But most of 

them expect a reconstruction similar to that following the Depression of the thirties. But even in the depths of the last depression, there was plenty of oil, plenty of fertile farmland, a relatively small world population, oceans of fish, little pollution, overall mental health, intelligence and competence.

   The difference for our generation is that the easily 

accessible and cheap fuel, extensive fertile farmlands and economic freedom which made possible our world's surplus population, no longer exists to perpetuate it. Even with our bounty following the Crash of '29, it wasn't until ten years later, and mainly through war production that our economy recovered from the Depression.

   Our politicians have so devoted themselves to nurturing and 

perpetuating hordes of incompetent dependents that further industrialization to put our nation on a war footing will be unaffordable. Even if it were not, our present union-spoiled and demanding work force could not be expected to perform the way our parents did in the war plants in the late 30's and early 40's.

   Police go on strike in high crime areas.  Firemen picket while 

tenements burn. Hospital workers walk out on the suffering. Teachers stay home for weeks as their students languish in a state of drooling imbecility. Why should we believe that this generation of workers will show more dedication to duty than our supposedly disciplined public servants? No. Our present working class lacks the sense of duty to again put our country on a war footing and revive our economy.

   That's why I see no avoidance of nuclear war.  The world's 

resources are in too short a supply to spare for a conventionally waged Third World War. The world's workers are no longer competent or disciplined enough to produce for such a war. But the belligerent powers do have the nuclear weapons to fight such a war and so they will have no other recourse but to use them.

   But no matter.  The Earth's surplus population is long overdue 

for a culling. A nuclear holocaust will be a blessing for the survivors. We can start anew, hopefully avoiding past errors. Imagine a world without such festering social sores as New York, Washington D.C., San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Detroit, Moscow, Rome, Peking or any of the other great pestholes harboring the majority of the world's parasites and bureaucrats. In light of all this, to survive, you must move about a hundred miles from any major target area.

   A lot of boasting is done by and on behalf of the Russians 

concerning their technology. I believe it to be more science fiction than science. They can't land a man on the moon and return him or even decisively defeat the Afghans.

   Their targets will most likely be the major cities.  Their 

overall strategy would be to knock out the U.S. capability to prevent them from taking over Europe, the Mideast and Africa. Even if they lost their own major cities they might believe they could still prevail with the U.S. crippled.

   I don't think they would waste missiles on our missile sites 

and SAC bases, since our missiles and planes would be well away before they could be hit. Nor do I believe isolated nuclear reactors would be targets. With the cities they served knocked out, they would be worthless. Even so, I wouldn't trust their crews to deactivate them. Panic, carelessness or sheer incompetence will cause a lot of meltdowns after a nuclear war so I wouldn't live near one.

   While the Russians prepare to exterminate the Chinese and use 

what's left of their missiles on the world's major cities, you should prepare to weather the storm. Then, while the surviving Russians, Europeans, etc. revert to primitive tribalism, we can be on our way back up.

   Following the collapse and/or nuclear war, there will be up to 

three billion less humans to share our planet with. Even so, the devastation of the cities will mean an automatic lowering of the levels of technology. The cities, even those not bombed, will explode in panic, rioting and looting hardly imaginable. Most machinery and articles of value will be destroyed.

   After the initial chaos it may take up to five years for the 

roots of civilization to send up shoots. Citizens of small towns will immediately organize to fight off bands of refugees and marauders. City and suburban survivors wil scrounge from the rubble enough to barely live. Finally, after the less adaptable have died out, the criminal elements have been killed off, and the survivors have become more interested in trading with than killing off one another, culture will reemerge.

   In the meantime, those who planned to survive will be the 

virtual salvation of their neighbors. They will have books on basic 19th and early 20th century technology such as found in THE SURVIVOR and other Atlan publications. They will have metal working lathes, scroll saws and various other power tools to make things for barter. They will have basic barter goods to trade for necessities.

   I read and hear a lot about investments as a hedge against the 

collapse. Most such advice is given by professional investment counselors who are experts on speculation. Their advice is usually very good in times of affluence when the game is played with intangibles such as precious metals, gems, paintings, antiques, stocks, bonds, etc. These things have value in the same sense that bubble gum cards and marbles have great value among children.

   But to advise their purchase for security after the collapse 

of a whole way of life is either stupidity or fraud. Many survival investment counselors predict an economic collapse, followed by a severe depression and resulting civil strife. In time, they say, reconstruction will take place, a gold-backed, liberty-loving republic will be established and we will live happily ever after in some sort of upper middle class paradise.

   Promoters of the above scenario conveniently lose sight of our 

millions of mentally defective social dependents, the 55% functional illiteracy rate among our voting populace and the "hope of the future". It should stand to reason that with an electorate markedly inferior to that of only a generation ago, a political victory by a conservative is impossible. Since the majority of the electorate consumes more than they produce, they will naturally vote only for those politicos who promise them more benefits with less responsibility.

   As Rome and the rest of the world of her day degenerated and 

collapsed, giving way to a centuries long dark age, so may our present system. Whether our survivors revert to barbarism depends on those of us who can preserve the best of our culture and knowledge. This includes our technology, science, machinery and the chemicals and other raw materials needed to start over.

   Those who invest in gold, silver, gems, paintings and antiques 

will make no contribution to the future. They have been led to believe by "survival investment counselors" that the ignorant peasantry will flock to them with their chickens and tomatoes to trade for slivers of gold, not to mention the honor of basking in their glorious presence.

   Quite the opposite will be true.  The average survivalist will 

have only contempt, and even hostility, for the formerly affluent who invested in intangibles instead of useful tools and day-to-day necessities unavailable after the collapse.

   The idea of investing in intangibles seems all the more 

preposterous when one realizes that the wealthiest investors got theirs through investing in basic needs such as grains, raw materials, machinery, etc. Since investing in needs is the key to wealth in times of affluence, common sense dictates that basic necessities will be the key to wealth after the collapse. The investor who makes a million in grain and turns around and puts his profits into gold will find himself paying all his gold for enough to eat, if he can find someone who wants it.

   On the other hand, had he bought and stored grains in a secure 

place now, when the collapse comes, he could get all the gold he wanted from anyone sucker enough to have laid it by. He could also trade his grains for whatever other foods and barter commodities were available.

   The truly wealthy should put their investment cash into 

warehouses full of power tools, medicines, chemicals, canned foods, clothing, weapons, etc. You'd be surprised how quickly such items will disappear when no longer manufactured. It stands to reason that such storage places should be located in small towns away form populace areas and refugee routes.

   The more modest investors should stock up on such barter items 

as bullets, salt, cocoa, razor blades, cosmetics, plain aspirin, ball point pens, metal pens and pen holders plus ink, matches, garden seeds, needles, spools of thread, chewing tobacco, plain antihistamine for colds, combs, tweezers, pocket knives, lighters and extra flints plus lighter fluid, chewing gum and just about anything that can't be made by hand.

   For more ideas on survival investments, trades, etc. buy the 

first four volumes of THE SURVIVOR.

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